If your business was quoted for commercial solar in the last few years, there is a fair chance the system came in at 99 kW and change. That number was rarely about your roof or your power bill. It was about the incentive rules, which stopped paying upfront certificates at 100 kW. From 1 October 2026 that ceiling moved to 1 MW, and for many Geelong warehouses, factories, cold stores and farms, the maths on a properly sized system now looks very different.
Solar systems up to 1 MW installed from 1 October 2026 can now earn federal Small-scale Technology Certificates (STCs), which come off the price upfront. The government puts the saving on a mid-scale system at around 20%. Victorian businesses installing 30 to 200 kW may also qualify for a separate state discount. Bizsolar sizes every commercial solar system from your interval data, so you can see what the new rules mean for your site before you commit.
What changed on 1 October 2026?
The federal government amended the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Regulations to expand the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme from 100 kW to 1 MW for solar PV. The Clean Energy Regulator (CER) confirms the change applies to mid-scale solar installed from 1 October 2026.
Before this, anything over 100 kW fell into the large-scale scheme. Those systems earned Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGCs) slowly, as they generated, at a market price nobody could lock in. Most businesses either paid full price upfront or trimmed the design to stay under 100 kW.
Now the same upfront, deemed certificates that homes have used for years apply to systems ten times larger. When the change was announced in August, government estimates put the discount at about $68,000 for a 250 kW system. Treat that as a guide only, because the final figure depends on the STC price on the day and your location.
One timing detail matters. The CER says applications for mid-scale certificates will not open until mid to late November 2026, once its systems are ready. A system installed in October is eligible, but certificates cannot be created and assessed until then. Ask any installer how they will handle the discount in the meantime: as an upfront price reduction they carry, or as a later adjustment.
Which Geelong businesses gain the most?
The biggest winners are businesses whose roofs and power bills were always bigger than 100 kW, but whose quotes were not.
Sites that were squeezed under the old cap
Large warehouse and factory roofs around Corio, North Geelong, Moolap and Breakwater often have room for far more than 100 kW. As a rough guide from the Victorian Energy Upgrades program, a 100 kW system needs about 450 to 600 square metres of clear roof. If your roof is several times that and your daytime load is high, the old cap was leaving savings on the table.
Businesses that run hard between 9am and 5pm
Cold storage, manufacturing, food processing, retail and clubs with daytime trade use most of their power when panels produce most. That matters more than ever, because exported solar earns very little in Victoria now. There has been no regulated minimum feed-in tariff since 1 July 2025, so every kilowatt-hour used on site is worth far more than one sent to the grid.
Farms and agribusiness around Ballarat and the Bellarine
Machinery sheds, irrigation pumps, dairies and cool rooms often sit on big, unshaded roofs. Mid-scale solar that previously meant chasing LGCs can now be priced with an upfront discount, which suits farm budgeting far better.
How the 2026 incentives stack up?
There are four incentives a Geelong business should check. Some stack; some depend on system size.
| Incentive | Who it suits | What you get | Conditions worth knowing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal STCs (Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme) | Any business installing solar up to 1 MW | Upfront certificate discount, usually taken off the quote | SAA-accredited designer and installer; panels and inverter on the CEC approved list |
| Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) commercial solar discount | Non-residential sites installing 30 to 200 kW | Indicative $4,550 for 50 kW, $9,100 for 100 kW, $34,300 for 200 kW (based on a $70 certificate price) | Must go through a VEU accredited provider; inverter of at least 30 kVA; monitoring portal; 5-year inverter and 10-year panel warranties |
| Instant asset write-off | Small businesses with turnover under $10 million | Immediate deduction for assets under $20,000 each | Announced as permanent from 1 July 2026; check its legislative status and your tax position with your accountant |
| Cheaper Home Batteries Program | Small businesses adding a battery | About 30% off an eligible battery of 5 to 100 kWh | Battery must be installed with solar; tiered support since May 2026 |
Two things to watch. The VEU guidance was last updated in June 2026, before the 1 MW change, and still describes systems above 100 kW as LGC-eligible. Ask your provider to confirm how the state discount and federal certificates combine for a 100 to 200 kW system. Second, most commercial systems cost well over $20,000, so the instant write-off often won’t apply in full; the small business depreciation pool (15% in year one, 30% after) may apply instead. That is a conversation for your accountant, not your installer.
What are Geelong businesses paying for power right now?
The Victorian Default Offer gives a useful reference point. For small businesses on the Powercor network, which covers Geelong, the Bellarine and Ballarat, the 2026–27 default flat rate is 27.36 cents per kWh plus a $1.6978 daily supply charge, including GST. On the default time-of-use tariff, the peak rate of 36.29 cents applies from 9am to 9pm on weekdays, which is exactly when solar produces.
Most businesses are on market offers rather than the default, so pull out your own bill. If you are on a time-of-use plan with a weekday daytime peak, solar is offsetting your most expensive power.
Does a bigger system always pay off?
No. The ceiling moved; the physics did not. A system that exports half its output on weekends earns very little for that half. The right size comes from four things:
- Your interval data. Half-hourly usage shows how much power you draw while the sun is up, on weekdays and on weekends.
- Roof space and structure. Older steel roofs may need an engineer’s check before they take hundreds of panels.
- Network approval. Larger systems need more detailed studies from Powercor and may get an export limit, which matters less if the system is sized for self-consumption.
- Future load. If you plan to add EV chargers, heat pumps or electric process heat, size for the load you will have, not just today’s.
What should you do before the November portal opens?
The weeks before applications open are a good window for the slow parts of a commercial project.
- Download 12 months of interval data from your retailer or Powercor’s myEnergy portal.
- Book a site assessment covering roof area, structure, switchboard and access.
- Lodge network pre-approval, since this is often the longest wait.
- Get a proposal showing modelled self-consumption, payback and an itemised price.
- Confirm in writing how STCs and any VEU discount appear on your invoice.
How Bizsolar approaches commercial solar?
We start with your interval data and tariffs, not a standard package. That shows how much of the system you will actually use on site before any panel is quoted. If a bigger system won’t pay off for your load, we’ll say so.
How Bizsolar helps Geelong businesses
- Load and bill analysis from your half-hourly data, with modelled self-consumption and payback
- Structural checks where needed, plus Powercor connection applications and export limits
- Installs planned around your trading hours, with short power interruptions scheduled in advance
- Performance monitoring after switch-on, so you have real generation figures to report
FAQs
Is the 1 MW solar rebate actually law?
Yes. The Renewable Energy (Electricity) Regulations 2001 were amended, and the Clean Energy Regulator says the expansion applies to eligible solar installed from 1 October 2026. Applications open mid to late November 2026. Bizsolar can walk you through how that timing affects your quote.
Can we claim STCs and the Victorian VEU discount on the same system?
The VEU program says businesses may claim other incentives in addition to its discount, and it covers systems of 30 to 200 kW. Because its guidance predates the 1 MW change, confirm the treatment for systems over 100 kW with a VEU accredited provider. We’ll flag this in your proposal.
We lease our building. Can we still install solar?
Often, yes, but you need the owner’s approval for roof works. Bizsolar can provide the technical details your landlord will ask for and talk through options that suit both of you.
How long does a commercial solar project take?
It depends mostly on network approval and system size. Larger systems need more detailed Powercor studies and sometimes structural engineering. Bizsolar maps every stage up front so you know the timeline before signing.
Do we need a battery with commercial solar?
Not always. If you use most of your solar during the day, a battery adds less value. It helps when you have evening loads or demand charges, or need backup. Our solar batteries page explains when storage makes sense, and we model both options for your site.
Ready to see what 1 MW means for your roof?
The rule change rewards businesses that size to their real load, and the paperwork takes time. Send us 12 months of power bills or interval data and we’ll book a free site assessment for your Geelong, Bellarine or Ballarat site. Book a free commercial site assessment or call 1300 537 363.